ORANGE COUNTY, Oct. 26, 2026 — Fewer Orange County buyers are signing contracts this fall. Pending sales fell for a fourth straight week to 1,573, the lowest October count in at least five years, according to the Orange County Real Estate Market Report for the week of October 19. That’s about 21% below the same week last year.
Prices haven’t dropped. Sales volume has. For buyers who can make the payment work, that’s an opening. Here’s the data and what it means for an ADU purchase.
The Numbers
| Metric | Latest | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| OC pending sales (week of Oct. 19) | 1,573 | 1,989 a year ago (about -21%) |
| OC active listings | 5,034 | Flat week over week |
| OC median days on market | 47 | Up from 46 |
| OC homes in escrow (September) | 1,553 | -13.5% year over year |
| LA County homes in escrow (September) | 3,555 | -14.7% year over year |
| OC single-family median sold price (September) | $1,456,000 | +4.7% year over year, 1% below peak |
| 30-year fixed rate (Oct. 22) | 7.32% | 6.19% a year ago |
Sources: the weekly OC housing report, Wire Associates’ September SoCal report using CRMLS data, and Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey.
Why Buyers Pulled Back
Rates are the main reason. The 30-year fixed is more than a full point above a year ago. The OC report says rates near 7.5% plus economic uncertainty pulled the normal fall slowdown forward. Its conclusion is that this is a slowdown in sales volume, not a price collapse.
Condos are where it shows most. Altos Research data shows 43.3% of OC condo listings had a price cut, a record for that data set. Single-family homes are holding up better, and homes with legal ADUs are holding up best. In my October Costa Mesa report, a home with a rented ADU sold in five days, over asking, while overpriced homes nearby kept cutting.
What Fewer Buyers Means for You
- More room to negotiate. With homes sitting a median of 47 days, sellers are agreeing to inspection periods, repair credits and rate buydowns they turned down in the spring. I cover how to use that in what 7%+ rates mean for buyers this fall.
- Less competition on ADU lots. Investors who need a property to cash flow at 25% down mostly aren’t writing offers right now. Buyers with more cash, or who plan to live there, have the field to themselves.
- Timing ahead of 2027. Starting January 1, AB 956 allows two detached ADUs on a single-family lot. If you buy a large lot in a slow fall market, you’re paying today’s price for next year’s unit count.
The Payment Math at Today’s Rates
Here’s a simple example. Take a $1,200,000 OC home with a rented ADU. I’m assuming about 8% on an investment loan, property tax around 1.1%, $200 a month for insurance, $4,200 rent on the main house and $2,900 on the ADU. Those rents are in line with what I’m seeing in Garden Grove, Anaheim and Buena Park. Your numbers will vary.
| 25% down ($300,000) | 50% down ($600,000) | |
|---|---|---|
| Principal and interest | $6,604 | $4,403 |
| Taxes and insurance | $1,300 | $1,300 |
| Total payment (PITI) | $7,904 | $5,703 |
| Combined rent | $7,100 | $7,100 |
| Monthly cash flow | -$804 | +$1,397 |
At 25% down, the property costs you about $800 a month to hold. At 50% down, it pays you about $1,400. That’s typical for Southern California rentals today. More on choosing a down payment in how much to put down on an OC investment property.
Rates also matter. On a $900,000 loan, each half-point drop saves about $300 a month. If you buy now and refinance later, you lock in today’s price and get the lower payment when rates come down. If you wait for lower rates, you’ll likely be competing with the buyers who are sitting out right now.
If you plan to live in the main house, the numbers change a lot. You get owner-occupant rates, a smaller down payment, and in many cases ADU rent counted toward qualifying.
City by City
Conditions vary by city. My October reports for each:
- Anaheim ADU homes, October 2026
- Garden Grove ADU homes, October 2026
- Fullerton ADU homes, October 2026
- Huntington Beach ADU homes, October 2026
- Long Beach ADU homes, October 2026
For city-level guides, see Costa Mesa, Santa Ana and Fullerton.
What’s Next
Sales usually slow further from November through the holidays. If rates stay above 7%, expect pending sales to keep falling into December, and more sellers to offer credits. I’ll update these numbers in next month’s reports.
This is general information, not financial advice. Payment figures are estimates. Get a quote from your lender.
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